Is China's Two-Children Policy Too Late?

Is China's Two-Children Policy Too Late?
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What you need to know

The two-child policy seems too late for the older generation. It is estimated that young people born after 1980 are the ones that can benefit from the new policy. People.cn mentions that the government should provide relevant support for education, childcare and medical equipment to improve the environment for raising children. They also have to make sure the milk powder is safe.

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China has officially ended the one-child policy and will promote a two-children policy. Officials say that it is a positive response to the aging population. However, public opinion doubts the new policy since the cost of raising a child is really high. It is still questionable if people really want to give birth to a second child.

170 thousand people have participated in a survey conducted by Sina, and the results show that 42.8% of the participants do not consider having a second child, 28.9% of the participants are willing and 28.3% says it depends. The main reason people do not want to have a second baby is that they can’t afford to do so. Chinese media reckons that raising a child in China costs at least Rmb$ 680 thousand (approximately US$ 107 thousand).

After implementing the one-child policy for thirty years, the policy that married couples are allowed to have two children if one spouse is the only child launched in 2013. However, a review in people.cn says that up to May this year, only 1.45 million couples applied for raising a second child, which is considered to be a eugenic consensus in the article.

The two-children policy seems too late for the older generation. It is estimated that young people born after 1980 are the ones that can benefit from the new policy. People.cn mentions that the government should provide relevant support for education, childcare and medical equipment to improve the environment for raising children. They also have to make sure the milk powder is safe.

Founder Securities estimates that if optimistic, in next four years there will be up to 52.12 million newborn babies; pessimistically, more than 25 million babies. There will be 30 to 35 million babies if in a neutral situation.

The report says that the policy will have almost no influence in next five years. It is assumed optimistically that the economic stimulation of the two-children policy from 2016 to 2020 will be only 0.066%, which means the demographic dividend in the short term generates meager profit and belongs to long-term futures.

Professor of the National School of Development at Peking University Yao Yang predicts that the birth rate will rise slightly for a short period of time and help stimulate consumption; however, the rate will decline in two to three years. He says the shrinking labor force does not drag on the economy and that the main problem is low labor demand.

Translated by Wen-yee Lee
Edited by Olivia Yang

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